Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
NEV
63%
-170
NIU
37%
+170
Model expected score: NEV 28.8 – NIU 22.6
Defensive Matchup Ratings
NEV defensefaces NIU
vs QB
#20
#20 163.3 yds/gm
vs RB
#130
#130 207.3 yds/gm
vs WR
#20
#20 163.3 yds/gm
vs TE
#20
#20 163.3 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
NIU defensefaces NEV
vs QB
#103
#103 231.5 yds/gm
vs RB
#91
#91 154.5 yds/gm
vs WR
#103
#103 231.5 yds/gm
vs TE
#103
#103 231.5 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.