Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
NU
45%
+122
OSU
55%
-122
Model expected score: NU 24.6 – OSU 27.0 · Injury adj: starting QB out for OSU (-3.0 pts)
Defensive Matchup Ratings
NU defensefaces OSU
vs QB
#90
#90 224.3 yds/gm
vs RB
#100
#100 161.5 yds/gm
vs WR
#90
#90 224.3 yds/gm
vs TE
#90
#90 224.3 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
OSU defensefaces NU
vs QB
#24
#24 168.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#26
#26 99.0 yds/gm
vs WR
#24
#24 168.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#24
#24 168.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.