Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
SYR
48%
+108
NCSU
52%
-108
Model expected score: SYR 28.5 – NCSU 29.6
Defensive Matchup Ratings
SYR defensefaces NCSU
vs QB
#35
#35 180.5 yds/gm
vs RB
#65
#65 138.3 yds/gm
vs WR
#35
#35 180.5 yds/gm
vs TE
#35
#35 180.5 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
NCSU defensefaces SYR
vs QB
#79
#79 215.8 yds/gm
vs RB
#73
#73 143.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#79
#79 215.8 yds/gm
vs TE
#79
#79 215.8 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.