Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
CAL
32%
+212
UVA
68%
-213
Model expected score: CAL 22.5 – UVA 31.2
Defensive Matchup Ratings
CAL defensefaces UVA
vs QB
#27
#27 173.4 yds/gm
vs RB
#122
#122 187.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#27
#27 173.4 yds/gm
vs TE
#27
#27 173.4 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
UVA defensefaces CAL
vs QB
#7
#7 140.8 yds/gm
vs RB
#83
#83 149.6 yds/gm
vs WR
#7
#7 140.8 yds/gm
vs TE
#7
#7 140.8 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.