Model: 1,000,000 simulated games from team scoring efficiency (offensive PPG vs opponent points allowed, +2.5 home field). Simplified efficiency model.
SC
64%
-178
ARK
36%
+178
Model expected score: SC 31.1 – ARK 24.2
Defensive Matchup Ratings
SC defensefaces ARK
vs QB
#100
#100 231.2 yds/gm
vs RB
#30
#30 100.4 yds/gm
vs WR
#100
#100 231.2 yds/gm
vs TE
#100
#100 231.2 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
ARK defensefaces SC
vs QB
#49
#49 194.0 yds/gm
vs RB
#78
#78 146.0 yds/gm
vs WR
#49
#49 194.0 yds/gm
vs TE
#49
#49 194.0 yds/gm
Ranks of 138 FBS teams · #1 = toughest · red = tough, green = soft
Player Board
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Prop lines for this game typically populate 1-3 days before kickoff. Check back Thursday or Friday for the full prop board with edges, hit rates, and game logs.
How to read edges: the % is the model's probability for the side it favors - green = over, red = under. Stars = model confidence (Kelly-based), not a betting recommendation. Max 1.5u - bet responsibly.